Pa. Is Keystone in House GOP’s Path to Majority
By Greg Giroux, CQ-Roll Call
Roll Call’s current House race ratings include 10 of Pennsylvania’s 19 districts as among the 104 districts that will hold competitive elections this fall — the most in any state.
“Pennsylvania will be the ultimate bellwether this year, because we have more competitive congressional seats than any other state in the union,” said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist. “Pennsylvania is, it’s fair to say in the red-blue continuum, a very purple state right now.
Another Pennsylvania rematch will take place in the Scranton-area 11th district, where 13-term Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski (D) will face Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) for the third time in eight years. The congressman won their most recent race, in 2008, by just over 3 points.
Kanjorski’s weakness in the Democratic primary — he won just 49 percent of the vote against two challengers — suggests he will have trouble holding the Democratic base in a district that usually votes strongly for that party. Kanjorski will tout his seniority as helpful to Pennsylvania.
In this article by Charles Schillinger of the Times Shamrock the writer asks the question "Will Kanjorski face anti-incumbent fervor?"
About 17 percent of primary voters, 12,000 Democrats, cast ballots for challenger Brian W. Kelly, an unknown outsider running on a Tea Party movement platform who has no political experience, raised no money and said he did not do any door-to-door campaigning.
That voters from Kanjorski's own party were so willing to embrace an unknown over their senior congressman "should be troubling" for Kanjorski, said his general election foe, Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta.
In a three-way race, Kanjorski won 49 percent of the vote - 15 percent more than his closest competitor, O'Brien, who received 34 percent of the vote, according to unofficial results.
For an incumbent who wants to tout his seniority he couldn't even capture half the votes of his own party in the primary. Kanjorski and Mitchell have more than homework to do. They have to figure out how to save their sinking ship. For Arlen Specter the agony is over. Kanjorski may experience a slow painful process.
Kanjorski makes the claim "Democrats have a lot of work to do to sell their message to their constituency," Kanjorski said. "We literally saved our country. When we do get that (message) out, we'll get the loyal response from the Democratic electorate.
What Paul is really saying is that our granchildren and their children saved our country. It is their money that he, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid used to triple the national debt. Our siblings will be stuck with the tab.
1 comment:
Here's Barletta's problem in a nutshell: voters want OUTSIDERS, not INSIDERS WHO HELD A DIFFERENT JOB! We're not rearranging the deck chairs here. Every time Barletta opens his mouth to make his bizarre claims about saving Hazleton, Ed Mitchell laughs - that's their argument, not his. If they paint him as an insider - a FAILED INSIDER no less - then he's DEAD.
If B wants to win, then he needs to attack Kanjo on the bailouts and the economy. Here's why: Kanjo has more money. If B attacks Kanjo on any other issue, Kanjo will embrace B's position, blurring the differences in voters' minds. But, if B attacks Kanjo on the bailouts, Kanjo will run ads touting his role, thereby inadvertently using his own money to help B!
Kanjo's "we saved the world" argument could be smashed on the merits, but the politics is clear: nobody buys Kanjo's tale, so B's got to hit him on this issue until his knuckles bleed.
This issue is perfect: its visceral, it cuts across party lines, it plays on the insider/outsider theme, it uses Kanjo's seniority and money against him, it feeds into corruption/DC ignores us and so on. And, best of all, I know that Kanjo's terrified of it.
I still think Kanjo could win this thing because I doubt that B will change his strategy in time. He seems content to run as the "savior" of Hazleton, which is more than Ed Mitchell could have hoped for. We'll see if B figures it out.
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