Casey-Smith Senatorial Race Pennsylvania

Following politics for a long time one never knows how a race will turn out until election day.  Polls give each side its best guess but the data is only as good as the pollster.  I truly believe the polls in Ohio don't reflect what is actually going to happen election day between Romney and Obama.   Using 2008 election data to create the sample of voters will be the factor in that race.

Likewise I believe the senatorial race between Bob Casey and Tom Smith is alot closer than most believe.  This report from GoErie.com exemplifies the tightening in that race.

The Washington Post has moved the race from "solid Democrat'' to "lean Democrat,'' an indication the race is in play. But the newspaper said Casey is still the clear front-runner.

Casey estimates that his campaign has spent $11 million, but he said he must raise most of his funds while Smith can afford to write checks.

Smith acknowledges that he and his wife have spent millions of their own money, but he said he's been busy with successful campaign fundraisers, too.

As for the polls, Smith, 64, a former coal company owner, said the Philadelphia Inquirer survey is just one. "When you add them all up and you do an average, this race is tightening,'' he said.

I had very prominent Democrat tell me he is leaning toward Smith in this race.  I know one person doesn't make an election but it was a telltale sign that all is not what is seems to be on the evening news.

Their upcoming debate may have an impact on election day.

Specter Vs. Sestak Poll

Ahead of the vote SOP predicted a Sestak win over Benedict Arlen Specter. Take a look at this poll presently underway at Philly.com.

It's 12:52 P.M. and the count is 1042 for Sestak to 384 for Specter or a 73 to 26% lead. I find this poll particularly important given that in the Philly region, it is home to Specter, and Delaware County, is the home turn for Sestak.

Eachus Should Resign Leader Post According To Poll

Politcspa.com has a poll on the left side of its main page "Should Majority Leader Todd Eachus Resign? Eachus is one for franking polls so its his turn in the pit. Overwhelmingly the results are over 3 to 1 that he should resign as Rep. Bryan Lentz suggested last week. It is time for their caucus to reorganize especially when it took this long to get the table games legislation done that signals an end to the budget battle. Pennsylvania requires a passed budget by July 1st of each year. There are only 6 more months until July of this year.

Kanjorski Stuck At 35% Re-elect

In a new Franklin and Marshall poll Paul Kanjorski is stuck in the mud at 35% re-elect. The poll shows Barletta leads 40-35 even though the new poll has a larger Democrat sample size than normal.

Kanjorski negatives are still fatally low for a 24 year incumbent and 4 months and $4million dollars of ads have not done much to change the dynamic of this race.

Vince Galko, Campaign Manager for Lou Barletta has this to say:

“This is very encouraging news for the people of Northeast PA. Mr. Kanjorski is being rejected by two thirds of the voters in the 11th Congressional District. Lou Barletta will continue to work hard to earn every vote.

Despite what Kanjorski says, he has been at or under 35% for nearly four months. He and his friends have spent $4million attacking Lou Barletta since June. The voters identify with Lou Barletta and they are embarrassed by Mr. Kanjorski’s record. If the Kanjorski campaign spins any harder they may strike oil. Nevertheless, this will be a close race and we are not letting up one bit.”

Ed Micthell and Paul Kanjorski have been trying to convince America that Lou Barletta's polls are not accurate. On October 10, 2008 Mitchell and Kanjorski had their goons at the DCCC released a poll claiming Kanjo was up by 8 percentage points.

Life is a Highway will have meaning in this campaign. Lets move on the media highway from the Times Leader over to the Scranton Times Tribune where Borys Krawczeniuk (pronounced CROUCH-enyook, that's why we just call him "Borys")writes "The Borys Blog." Read this post dated June 16, 2008. The post wasn't flattering to Lou Barletta but one would expect that from the left wing Tribune. However, there was one statement in the post that is germane to this article- "As a matter of policy, Mr. Mitchell never releases any details of Mr. Kanjorski's polls." Right on Ed. But the DCCC will do your dirty work for you.

The public has had enough of Porky Kanjorski and Ed Mitchell. Their antics have planted the seeds of implosion. And the crops are coming home.

The exorbitant amount of money being spent on Kanjorski's behalf by the DCCC and PACS demonstrates that to Mitchell and Kanjorski it's all about money buying the office; nothing about who may be the better person to represent us.