Monday, October 15, 2012
Casey-Smith Senatorial Race Pennsylvania
Following politics for a long time one never knows how a race will turn out until election day. Polls give each side its best guess but the data is only as good as the pollster. I truly believe the polls in Ohio don't reflect what is actually going to happen election day between Romney and Obama. Using 2008 election data to create the sample of voters will be the factor in that race.
Likewise I believe the senatorial race between Bob Casey and Tom Smith is alot closer than most believe. This report from GoErie.com exemplifies the tightening in that race.
The Washington Post has moved the race from "solid Democrat'' to "lean Democrat,'' an indication the race is in play. But the newspaper said Casey is still the clear front-runner.
Casey estimates that his campaign has spent $11 million, but he said he must raise most of his funds while Smith can afford to write checks.
Smith acknowledges that he and his wife have spent millions of their own money, but he said he's been busy with successful campaign fundraisers, too.
As for the polls, Smith, 64, a former coal company owner, said the Philadelphia Inquirer survey is just one. "When you add them all up and you do an average, this race is tightening,'' he said.
I had very prominent Democrat tell me he is leaning toward Smith in this race. I know one person doesn't make an election but it was a telltale sign that all is not what is seems to be on the evening news.
Their upcoming debate may have an impact on election day.