Franklin & Marshall posted a paper called A Certain Uncertainty. The first paragraph states "The sun rising in the morning, inevitable death, and inexorable taxes: these are among the certitudes of life. To these unavoidable experiences might be added one more sure thing--the persistent reelection of political incumbents. In fact, the habitual re-election of incumbents in Pennsylvania and across the nation comprises one of the fixities of modern life."
According to an article in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Specter could be 'toast' in 2010 election. HARRISBURG -- A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.
Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a "new person" in that job, registered voters by a 53-38 percent margin said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. Eight percent were undecided.
Political analysts generally worry about an incumbent when the reelect numbers fall below 50%.
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